[00:00:00] Welcome to Unpacking the Digital Shelf, APAC Edition, where we explore the unique challenges and opportunities shaping digital commerce across Asia-Pacific, with insights from the region's top experts.
[00:00:13] Welcome back to Unpacking the Digital Shelf, the APAC Edition. Today, we are joined by Ben Oliver, Media and ICP Lead at Mars Petcare, to unpack the evolving world of pet care and the role retail media plays in driving brand and commercial growth.
[00:00:38] Australia's online pet food and supplies market continues to grow, with the industry estimated to reach $1.2 billion in 2026. But as competition intensifies across grocery, specialist pet retailers, marketplaces like Amazon and emerging quick commerce platforms, pet brands are navigating an increasingly fragmented and complex retail landscape.
[00:01:01] For brands like Mars Petcare, which rely on retail partners to reach consumers, this presents both opportunities and challenges. How do we build an effective retail media strategy across multiple channels? How do you balance brand building with short-term sales performance? And importantly, how do you measure the true impact of your investment when you don't own the final transaction? These are all the questions we will be digging into today with Ben. So Ben, welcome to the podcast.
[00:01:31] So great to have you along. Great. Thanks for having me, Teresa. Pleasure to be here. Okay. So Ben, we are going to dive right in. And where I want to start is I want to talk a little bit more about the landscape that I've just touched on. So the Australian pet care category has really evolved over the past five years. We've seen rapid growth in marketplace channels like Amazon. Specialty pet has seen demonstrable growth online and in store. And it's a category where we've seen strong adoption of subscriptions.
[00:01:59] And of course, you know, there's the quick commerce piece as well. So Ben, from a Mars Petcare perspective, how has this evolution of the category changed the way that Mars has to think about commerce and its commerce strategy and engaging shoppers across an increasingly diverse range of channels? Yeah, no, it's a great question. I think from our point of view, it changes everything, but also it doesn't change anything at the same time.
[00:02:24] You know, we still need to, you know, like any other business in this category, we still need to maintain the fundamentals of the right product and the right pricing and the right distribution strategy. So I think in many ways, the fundamentals don't change. Obviously, what you refer to and what has changed is just the sheer nature of touch points that consumers can now buy pet food from. And, you know, years ago, most pet food was obviously sold through the grocery channels. And that was, you know, the vast majority of where pet food was bought.
[00:02:51] Today, grocery remains a really important channel for us. And those partners are critical to our success. And on top of that, we've now got all these other channels where you've sort of got, you know, the market in some ways is sort of going top and top and tail. So you've got this really interesting dynamic of the specialty, the rise of the specialty store, which is interesting because, you know, traditionally you'd go to your Woolies or your Coles and you would simply do your weekly shop and you'd grab a bag of pet food along the way. And many shoppers are still taking advantage of that sort of style of shopping.
[00:03:20] But, you know, you've increasingly, you've also got other types of shoppers who do like to make a trip to one of the specialty stores. And when I say specialty, I'm talking like a pet barn or, you know, pet circle or pet stock or these sort of guys and do a specialty where there might be a particular product or a particular price they've got in mind. So the rise of that channel has been a really interesting dynamic to see. And how do we play in that channel? What are the right products and pricing that can win in those channels?
[00:03:47] Then on the other side of it, you've kind of got the, what we call large assortment and you've got, you know, an incredible array of places to buy pet food. Like Bunnings is a really interesting use case. You walk into a Bunnings now, there's a giant tower of pedigree, which is awesome to see. So then you've got other channels like Aldi and you've got Kmart. And then, you know, then you've got obviously online players like Amazon who are hungry for growth in that category as well.
[00:04:10] So it's a really, it's a fun time to be in this sector, to be fair, because it's just, you've got so many different customers, all slightly different dynamics and points of difference. And, you know, and our role is to work with all of them and try and find mutual outcomes. So it's, yeah, it's an intellectually stimulating time to be in this category, I'd say. Yeah. Yeah. And enable the shopper to purchase the way that they want and via the channel they want, right? Yeah, exactly.
[00:04:36] And the subscription piece is an interesting one that, you know, how have you seen the subscription piece change the way some shoppers are buying over time? Has it become set and forget for some shoppers around this category or do you really see that as a very small portion of the market? Yeah, it's a good question. It's a bit of a mix, right? I think, you know, and I think some customers are definitely leaning into subscribe and save sort of style purchase mechanics more than others. And, you know, some are more set up for it than others.
[00:05:03] And I think pet food in particular is uniquely positioned to take advantage of this sort of sales dynamic given the nature of the product, right? It's what we call the non-expandable category. You know, you buy as much pet food as you need. You know, it's a fixed calorie diet. Well, I mean, you can make the argument that dogs have no fixed calories. I'll just eat whatever you put in front of them. But that's a whole other problem. And more. And more, I know. Whereas cats are different. Yeah, just different.
[00:05:27] But yeah, so the, you know, and depending on where you shop and what kind of pet you have, you know, your interval purchase period could vary greatly. You know, you could be buying pet food anywhere from every two to three weeks right up until, you know, 12 weeks potentially, right, if you're buying large pack sizes. So yeah, the nature of those sort of subscribed ones, I'd say, look, as a general rule, it's still the minority of the way that people do shop.
[00:05:53] However, as more and more people appreciate the ease of online shopping, whether it's via grocery or specialty or whatever, I think, and particularly given that it's a set timeframe for you, you know, you need pet food a certain period of time. My personal suspicion is that we'll probably see that type of behaviour increase over time. So yeah, it's a, I think, yeah, not all categories are set up and built in a way that works well with subscribe.
[00:06:21] But I think pediatrician is one that potentially has a great angle there. Absolutely. Absolutely. And I think as we've seen Amazon grow, obviously the subscribe and save offering has grown in market. And then you've got obviously the likes of your pet circles in the local market that are very strong subscription-based offerings. Yeah. So that's really interesting. So in light of the broader commerce strategy, we talked about, I mean, essentially pet food is, you can buy it anywhere through any channel these days.
[00:06:50] On the basis of all of the channels that, you know, you walked us through and the non-conventional retailers that you now even see the products stocked within. So in light of that and the importance of being discoverable and the preferred choice wherever shoppers choose to shop, how does Mars Pet Care think about the role of retail media or the role that that retail media plays across different channels?
[00:07:12] And how do you ensure your investment is working collectively to deliver the best outcome for the business from a sales point of view and broader brand building perspective? Yeah. And I think, you know, retail media as an activation pillar plays a really important role alongside the other ways that we go to market through comms, whether it's, you know, particularly with our ATL.
[00:07:36] And we're in a unique position that, you know, we, the shopper team and the retail media team and myself, we all work quite closely together on what we're doing. And I think that's, that's extremely helpful to, to make sure we're getting a complete view. So I think the holistic view on how we go to market generally, I think it's really important. And then I think the role that retail media specifically plays, I mean, there's, you know, we, we like most in the category have moved into retail very much with a lower funnel mindset.
[00:08:03] And around driving, you know, harvesting those, those shoppers who are currently in market, in market for our products. I think, you know, a lot of retailers will talk about the opportunities for brand building in retail. And I think, you know, potentially that's an angle for us to look at in the future. I think for now we, we, you know, like most, we are looking at it more as a, as a conversion style channel, but then, but then there's nuances within that, right? And I think, you know, the, the, there is much like, well, when I think about ATL, I tend to think of it through two lenses.
[00:08:33] There's the, the always on reach component, which is your sort of your master brand and making sure that you're topping up saliency and mental availability. But then you'll have those, those sort of like brand tempo moments that, you know, have cultural alignment or particular objectives around message association, whatever it is. And I think retail in many ways is, is not dissimilar, right? There's a, there's a role for retail that's, that, that fulfills that, that always on when, you know, you, we don't know when shoppers are going to come into market, but they will at some point.
[00:09:01] So there's a, there's a, without being able to time that exactly, there's a, there's an important role for it to play to, to do that always on saliency function. And then there'll be times when, you know, the brands will want to make a splash. So I think, you know, maybe it's my background and training in media, but I tend to sort of view retail as not, not being entirely dissimilar from, from how we think about buying off network media and the way it can be used.
[00:09:25] But I think certainly the initial use case for retail for mine is always that, that short term commercial harvesting piece. But like I say, it's an evolution and we'll, we're always looking at how that could evolve in the future. And are you seeing, you know, your investment in one channel has a halo effect to other channels and therefore your retail media planning is not just occurring within the channel, but across the space more holistically to optimize the ultimate outcome for the organization?
[00:09:54] Or is it still very much looking at it through the lens of, well, we're working with the individual retailers and yes, through individual marketplaces. And we, and we really think about the return at a platform level and channel level. Yeah, it's a great question. There are types of retail activation where the probability of a halo effect is minimal given the ad format.
[00:10:13] So if, you know, I think if you're buying, you know, always on search on a Woolies, for example, through citrus cartology, you know, I think the spillover of that into other channels like Coles is probably optimistic. I would say, to say the least. But, but then, you know, there are times when you're buying retail. I mean, I'm really, I'm really kind of thinking more of off network retail, right? Where, you know, what's a good example.
[00:10:38] So, you know, we've done work with Amazon in the past where there'll be a mixture of on network as well as off network. And then for, for that, you know, we'll often look at understanding, well, we've run off network Amazon ads for open web display or video, for example. So, you know, you're not, you know, you're not just reaching people who solely buy. Core on platform shoppers. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, like, you know, we'll obviously partner with them to look at how we target Amazon shoppers.
[00:11:05] But the reality is it's going out to a wider market. And so, I think in those cases, there's an opportunity to say, well, you know, have we seen uplift in other channels because of the nature of how we bought that off network? So, yeah, it does sort of become a bit of a case by case. I would say, you know, generally speaking with retail media, when we talk about on network versus off network, you know, the on network is the low hanging fruit that I think most brands start with.
[00:11:33] And then you start to look at off network buyers and see how that acts as a supplementary channel. So, yeah, I mean, on network, I would say, generally speaking, you're looking at it more in channel than off network. Potentially there are halo effects, but it's always a bit of a case by case. I think that's a really good way to think about it, particularly for those that are trying to grapple with what is that halo effect and how do I start to think about that strategically to quantify it? And when should I quantify it?
[00:11:58] You know, you've touched on the brand building piece of retail media networks and the fact that, you know, very much today Mars sees retail media as that bottom funnel, playing that bottom funnel role, driving those short term sales performance outcomes.
[00:12:13] I'd love to get a personal perspective from you around retail media networks and what you feel they need to do locally, globally to, you know, to be able to garner more investment from brand building budgets. Because there's a lot of talk about it. There's lots of retail media networks globally and locally looking to secure those brand building budgets. And it's interesting to hear how you're thinking about it today at Mars. But what's your perspective on that?
[00:12:42] And what would kind of entice a media leader like yourselves to go, yes, we need to look at this more seriously as a key brand building channel? Yeah. Even before brand building, I'd say, you know, like if you want more dollars from a company like Mars Pet Nutrition, then it's transparency and it's return. You know, like, I mean, we're not, I don't think we're that unique in that aspect, right?
[00:13:07] So, you know, looking at the pure retail media investment scope, you know, we always want to understand what incremental value is this driving for our business and how can we get a mutual outcome? How can we win? How can the category win? How can the consumer win, right? So that's just the, that's more the traditional retail buyers that, you know, the networks have really pushed, right? To your question though around brand. It's similar.
[00:13:30] I think what, what I think the pitch from a lot of retail media networks about off network has been around the value of one PD as an accuracy piece of targeting. And I think in the context of like, you know, obviously Apple's recent updates around third party intermediaries and data targeting has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works for how a lot of people view audience signal. And therefore things like one PD become even more attractive in some ways.
[00:13:55] But I think, yes, and there is incredible value in one PD that those, you know, woolies and coals and these sort of customers will always have better one PD. Well, arguably we'll have better one PD and more scope than most suppliers will. Yes. And I think, but then, you know, that, that, that targeting does come at a cost. Right. And, and, and I think what, what we always want to understand is like, we're not questioning the value of your, of your one PD cohorts. Like we, we know the value of it.
[00:14:24] And I think what a lot of brands, not just in, in pet food, but broadly are sort of trying to now getting their heads around is like, well, yes, if we use your one PD to, you know, buy potentially BVOD or Mesa or all these sort of off network channels. We love the idea of targeting with, with, with more precision or more accuracy, but what's it going to cost us? And I think the unit costs there, I think are really important. And, and, you know, outside of pet care, or just generally you see a really large range.
[00:14:52] And I think there are some customers who are super competitive on what they can offer through off network, you know, and that all comes down to unit, unit pricing around what they're, what they're going out with. And, and I do like, I, I really see people often criticize, they often criticize customers. Right. But I think what people have got to remember about what, like retail has pretty small margins as you know, right? So they've got razor thin, like if you're working at a Colesville Woolies, these guys are not working off 30, 40% margins. They're working off far, far smaller margins.
[00:15:23] I don't think a lot of people realize this. So like retail media, like I, I understand where they're coming from. It offers this opportunity to expand margin in a way that they can't do through other levers. Right. So I completely understand the business imperative for them to, to, to push more, more suppliers into this range. And there is value there, but like all things, right. It's a, it, everything is a trade-off between efficiency and effectiveness.
[00:15:47] And I think would one PD targeting be more effective than just cookie based or audience graph stuff? Most cases, yes. But is it going to cost so much more that the uplift isn't there? And that's something that all brands have got to go through the work and ask themselves. Yeah. I think what I'm hearing essentially is it's that weighing up of the value for the premium inventory that you're buying, right? Like how much premium can retail media networks put on it?
[00:16:13] And then do the economics weigh up in terms of the value that it will deliver the brand by paying premium versus buying brand building activity that sits outside of the retail media network. Spot on. Yeah. Yeah. And that, that makes absolute sense to me. Yeah. And I think you're right. I mean, if we think about retailers and margins, you know, particularly at the moment, there's significant squeeze as a result of cost of living prices arising quickly. Yeah.
[00:16:42] And we know that the cost of doing business is, is not declining. It's, it's, it's only growing, particularly as more shoppers move to buy online. And that is a, is a more cost intensive channel to manage as retailers. So I think there's some really rational arguments there as to, you know, why do they need to charge the premium in the first place? And there is real value in that 1P data. Yeah. It's just about how much of a premium can be justified, I suppose.
[00:17:10] On the basis of the return that you're looking for and the objectives you're trying to achieve. And that's it. A lot of companies, yeah, exactly right. I mean, I think aligning your objectives with those unit economic metrics is really the key unlock here. So I think there will be, yeah, there'll be times that the unit economics make perfect sense. And there'll be other times that it doesn't make sense. That's right. That's right. And I think one thing I would say is I can see a world where brands transact a huge amount of their ATL via customer retail media networks.
[00:17:39] And it becomes like a holistic buy, right? You get your onsite and your offsite and it's all just, like, there is a world where that can happen, where agencies just get cut out entirely. Yes. I think it's unlikely, but I can see a world where it happens. But I think in order for that dream to be realized, I think that, and I'm talking broadly here, not just in pet nutrition, but I think for that dream to be realized, the customers need to act and think like media agencies. Yes, that's right. That's right. Yeah.
[00:18:08] And they need, there's the transparency, there's the rate cards, there's the media plans, there's the sales upload. Like there's all the kind of things that media, right? Or there's the strategy. There's all the kind of things that media agencies do and have done for a long time that has built that trust and that capability and that muscle of how to do this, right? And I think to put it in perspective, I mean, most customers have only been doing off network retail media for less than 10 years in Australia. That's right. I mean, if even that, right? That's right.
[00:18:36] So I'm thinking, geez, when did, I mean, cartology and coles for a 60, they're still very new entities, right? They are. They are. So, I mean, sophisticated, but still new nonetheless. So I think, you know, the unlock, I think, will be, you know, like you go out and you hire an MD of a Zenith or a, you know, a half dome or, and they become head of off network.
[00:18:59] And, you know, I mean, again, I'm sort of talking in generalities here, but that I think is where you're going to see the unlock where brands suddenly go, you know what? Actually, instead of giving you X, I'm going to give you X plus Y because it's just, yeah. Because I can see the value. I can see, and I can assess it against the other media that I'm buying today.
[00:19:17] And I'm confident to back it into my brand and business that this is going to continue to drive, you know, shift the brand perception, drive the awareness salience we need right through to then support conversion and, you know, creation of demand, right? So, yeah, I think that makes absolute sense. All right. So, I'm going to pivot. Good conversation though. I love that conversation.
[00:19:41] And I'm sure lots of those leading retail media networks are sitting there listening intentively to what we just spoke about. That's right. Exactly. Yeah, yeah. Take strategy from this guy. Yeah, definitely. So, I want to explore retail media through another lens and that's the role it plays in building both mental and physical availability. Because I know that's a topic that you're really passionate about talking about.
[00:20:08] So, do you think we're getting to the point where brands can have strong distribution and physical availability, but without retail media investment, they're effectively becoming invisible on the digital shelf? Yeah. Yeah. Second part. Sorry, sorry. No, it's okay.
[00:20:27] And as AI increases its influence in terms of what shoppers discover and are recommended, do you see this, you know, further exacerbating that concept that without retail media, you're effectively invisible? Oh, lots to unpack there. Right. First part. The question on the role that retail media plays, I think is an interesting one. And I think every business needs to go through this process to understand, is retail media primarily playing a physical availability?
[00:20:57] And I'm using very Ehrenberg Bass language here, right? Because that's kind of what I'm used to. But whether you call it physical availability, whether you call it distribution, it's all the same thing, right? So, does retail media play primarily a physical availability role or does it also play like a more of a performance, call it mental availability role, I suppose? But are you seeing retail as a way to ensure distribution and shelf space or are you seeing retail media as a way to drive performance and conversion? Now, you know, the words of Mark Ritson, it can be both.
[00:21:27] Now, if it is both, that's also fine, but you need to pick a primary. And the reason you need to pick a primary is because whichever one you go with will determine the metrics by which you view success. So, if you think, right, the retail media we are buying is all about ensuring that we are visible when shoppers go and have a look at us, whether it's pet food, whether it's snacking, whether it's soft drinks, whatever it looks like, detergent.
[00:21:50] Are we viewing this as primarily like almost like you would view total distribution points or, you know, the way the shopper guys talk about planograms, like where are we left or right? Are we toppled out? Like, you know, is it like an extension of the planogram in a traditional shopper sense? And if it is, then you should be using the metrics by which that is successful. So, you know, for me, that would be things like impression share or depending on what metrics you can get back, can you understand not just impression share, but share of top four results or average position?
[00:22:20] Like, you know, applying some of those Google sort of style metrics to it. And then that becomes the lens, you know, by which you view success. Because it's interesting, right, Ben, obviously physical availability different. Like, you know, I commit to retail media spend. I've got commitment of where I sit on the shelf. I know the number of facings. Yeah.
[00:22:38] From a digital point of view, though, you know, that physical availability, if I commit to retail media, first, just the commitment I'm going to spend X amount per year doesn't guarantee me that I'm going to get prominent placement on digital shelf. No. I've then still got to go through my citrus bidding and, you know, and things are changing all the time.
[00:22:59] So for me, you know, in a world where discovery is driven by algorithms and it's driven by LLMs and in some way, shape or form where you've got endless aisles, countless numbers of products, sometimes just, you know, that commitment to spend in retail media doesn't necessarily give you that physical availability when the customer goes to look for that product. No, true. And you're right. It's not an exact corollary with shoppers.
[00:23:28] So you're absolutely right. There are nuances to digital availability versus physical that need to be taken into account. That being said, though, the point on the endless aisle, there is a limit to that, right? Like we know that most people don't go past page one and almost no one goes past page two. And then in an on-site sense, very few people will. I think there was a report done a while ago. I can't remember the source, but it was something like 70 to 80% of the clicks go to the top 10 results on results.
[00:23:57] And again, there were some interesting results about are the paid listings your top four or your top eight or where do they sit? So I think if you're looking at – if 70 to 80% of your clicks are going to, say, the top half of the page and most of the top half of the page is paid listings, then – Yeah. Are you prepared to bid more than your competitors?
[00:24:25] And, you know, it's a little bit of a tricky one for most retail buying networks where, you know, it isn't like a Google where you can get a pretty good sense of competitive bids. You know, you're sort of – you know, there's a bit more guesswork involved. And that may change over time. I haven't been on the retail media tools in a while. But that was always a problem. We're like, what should our max CPC bid be? I'm like, I don't know. What's it been historically? And there's a bit of inch, inch, inch, inch, inch, and then you find the ceiling. And, yeah. So, yeah. No, you're right. There's some nuances there.
[00:24:53] But I think in reality, you know, if you're not buying retail, you're not really getting seen, I think, is a broad thing. So that's the – And you have to be there to be – If you're not there, you can't be bought. In the consideration set. And so there's a kind of a hygiene piece here around – Yes. Yes, very much so. Physical availability to drive physical availability on digital shelf. Yeah. You have to pay to play. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah.
[00:25:21] So I think, look – and this is why it's not an easy answer to this. But I'd say, look, there's definitely a physical availability thing and the metrics that go with that. And also remembering as well that in some industries, this is all wrapped up in trade spend, right? So in some cases, it forms part of business agreements and JPPs. So you know you're going to spend the money. It is a matter of if. So that's kind of also part of the consideration. And then there's the actual conversion part of it, right?
[00:25:48] Now, again, I would argue – I don't think there'd be a world where you'd sort of say all we care about is are we being seen, particularly in retail where you are tracking through closed-loop systems. I think you are going to want to understand, well, if we spend this money, are we getting incremental returns? So I'd probably say, does that form the primary objective for why you're doing it? Or is it more we're doing it because we want to make sure we're seen and we're also going to report? So I think it's probably just a hierarchy piece more than anything else.
[00:26:16] And then when it comes to the incrementality part of it, that's where it gets really tricky in retail, right? Because historically, across all categories, I think understanding incrementality in retail has been quite tricky. I'd say we're now seeing broadly across all categories M&M playing a larger role than how retail media is reported and viewed. Things like incrementality testing can give you a short-term window on iROAS,
[00:26:43] which you can then use as a multiplier to then think about what the reported ROAS is. And then you start to make some assumptions on, well, if the reported ROAS is X, we think it's actually Y because of what we know and what we've tested historically. I mean, I think ROAS has a really important role in platform attribution and optimization. I think where I think practitioners need to be careful is comparing ROAS across platforms, I think, is fraught.
[00:27:11] Yes, about understanding how it's calculated to begin with. Oh, there's a whole bunch of things, right? What model are you using? What's your attribution window, right? Like, yeah, exactly. And even like I would say in a category like ours where you've got particularly attribution windows across different customers where people are shopping more frequently in grocery versus in SPT. So then how does that affect how ROAS is calculated? So I think, yeah, you've got all these things got to be taken into account.
[00:27:35] So I think, you know, ROAS to optimize in campaign in one platform is probably the only way you can do it in real time. But I think where ROAS does get challenging is when you start to compare, you know, Woolies versus Coles or Woolies versus Pet Barn. And I think that can be a tricky, tricky thing to handle. Yeah. Which obviously ties back to the whole challenge the industry has been talking to for a while, which is around standardization of metrics.
[00:28:05] But I do think you make a really good point. And it's something that we talk to our clients about a lot. We see a lot of kind of leveraging retailer data to undertake their own internal measurement without the understanding of the definition that sits behind the metrics. So, you know, that attribution window is critical. You can't compare a 14-day with a 30-day attribution window and compare like for like return and outcome.
[00:28:31] And there's some of the conversations you need to be having with the networks themselves around how do they define that attribution approach in the first place. So, you make sure that when you're assessing that data, you know, on the basis of how it's been calculated or defined to begin with. Yeah. So, I mean, you've touched on MMM and, you know, we're talking about ROAS. We're talking about incrementality. So, how do you think brands can effectively measure the true effectiveness of their retail media investment, right?
[00:29:00] There's no silver bullet. Yep. You know, for everyone listening at home. We're not going to sit here and go, this is the magic formula. But, Ben, how do you think brands can build a really strong picture of effectiveness and performance that they can use to guide decision making and, you know, future investment decisions? Yeah. And I think the way that I can look at retail media measurement is not that dissimilar to how I view it in broader ATL, right?
[00:29:29] So, again, I kind of come back to the three core pillars of marketing measurement. You know, you've got MMM, you've got incrementality testing, and you've got multi-touch attribution models, right? So, I think, you know, there's a couple of things we've got. One, you know, to your point, there is no silver bullet here. And I think as marketers, we've just got to come to embrace and be comfortable in a little bit of ambiguity. Two, it's all about triangulation. And as an extension of that lack of certainty, there are probabilities we're dealing with here.
[00:29:57] And I think, again, one thing I heard Ritson talk about recently was the exact number is in some ways less important than the direction of it, right? I agree. I absolutely agree. It's something I've talked a lot about over my career. I've run analytics teams. I've done a lot of work in the kind of measurement reporting space. And it is about – it's not that absolute certainty in the number. Sometimes it's the trend or the shift that we need to be looking at more closely. I agree.
[00:30:23] And look, again, we live in this time and era where we can get access to almost real-time sales data, right? But it's dangerous. I mean, I've seen third-party case studies where, you know, people have run incrementality tests, and they've run an intervention for four weeks, right? And they've only looked at the uplift in the four-week period and decided, oh, you know what? Not good. Not good.
[00:30:47] Or, you know, even if you look at a range of probabilities, you might get a p-value of, I don't know, 0.05, 0.1. And I have this argument with data scientists all the time about bloody p-values. Oh, the p-value is 0.05. The p-value is only 0.1. I'm like, mate, we're in marketing. Like, I'd be happy with a p-value of 0.2. Like, let's be real here, right? Anyway, that's a little bugbear of mine. But I think, but then, yeah, you come back to this issue of if you're looking at incrementality of the intervention window,
[00:31:15] particularly in categories with broader interval purchase periods, you're missing a trick because you're going to be forgetting that there's a whole bunch of shoppers exposed to your intervention that, for whatever reason, didn't buy. They're not buying it. Yeah, that's right. But then they've suddenly, they've entered the category. Pet food is one of them, right? The frequency to which people are buying, if they're buying in bulk, it may not be within that four-week window. Yeah.
[00:31:39] And I've literally seen, I've seen studies where you go, right, what was the intervention period? Cool. And then you kind of wonder, if you'd added an extra four to eight weeks halo, I reckon you would have tripled your incremental reported revenue, you know? So, I mean, and look, there are some categories. Look, I talk about the triple marketing approach like it applies to all categories.
[00:32:03] Look, it doesn't, you know, like if you're in a particular category like auto where the interval purchase period is seven to 10 years, you're not going to be able to write a four-week intervention, right? Yes. Yes. So, you know, that's where tools like that are less effective. But I'd say if you know the tools, then you pick, yeah, it's like anything, you pick the right tool for the right job. So, I think within that toolkit, there's something, there should be enough there to give you a directional read.
[00:32:30] And the other thing I'd say as well, like one thing that you can kind of get lost a bit and not see the forest from the trees. Like it's easy to get hung up on, well, what was the incremental return of this particular campaign? And I'm not saying that's not important, but ultimately it's all about driving top-line revenue. So, like go back to your top-line revenue and look at that as your guiding light. I mean, again, tricky because you need to have a better understanding of what percentage of my media is driving top-line revenue.
[00:33:00] And in some categories, that's incredibly high and in others, it's much lower, right? So, you can have a gangbusters media return, but your top-line is sort of stubbornly staying where it is. But, you know what I mean? But these are all the things. But I would say, what's the overall return looking like over a long period? Like is it going where it needs to go or is it not? Like that's something I think we get very focused on the individual intervention, but what's the broader picture telling us? Yeah, and I think that's really true and important. So, I think, you know, MMM builds part of that picture.
[00:33:30] Incrementality tests help build part of that picture. What's the trajectory over the longer-term business performance? And I think, you know, one thing that you've touched on that I'm really passionate about is, you know, you can look at that attribution window and it could have performed really well. But you might have sold additional product all to your existing customer base and you're not actually growing share over time through bringing customers into the funnel, right?
[00:33:55] Or the reverse could also be true, that you've had a poorer sales performance period, but actually you've brought in a whole lot of new shoppers to brand. And over time, that's going to help support market share growth over the long term. So, you know, that shopper behavior piece I think is really important alongside of what you're talking about. And I often see that it's really missed within this market.
[00:34:22] So, you see a lot of brands with their Quantium subscriptions and their Unify Plus subscriptions. And when it comes to retail media, they're not going and using that data to help build a story around retail media performance. Like over that period where we ran activity, what did we see at a shopper behavior level over and above what we saw at a sales level? Yeah. I think it's a great shout. Yeah. Yeah. And like share, like category share, what happened during that?
[00:34:52] Or, yeah, and you've mentioned you need a brand, incredibly important for penetration. Or so, like all these data points, like I just think it's incredibly dangerous, getting back to the whole silver bullet analogy. You really can't be viewing success via one particular metric. It's got to be a combination of new to brand, category share, incremental revenue. Because you're right, you could drive incremental revenue, but new to brand stays flat. And then you would argue, well, is that a good outcome? Or you've got plenty of new to brand, but maybe incremental didn't happen. But then that's a slightly different story.
[00:35:22] So, yeah, I think. Which is the danger, I think, of being very short-term sales performance focused only. Yep. And ROAS focused, right? Absolutely. And ROAS does not tell you, you know, it gives you the broad top line, well, I spent this and I got this back. But where did the money, where did the dollars come from? And that interplay between brand and performance, right?
[00:35:44] I think it's, you know, I think from a planning point of view, I don't like it when I necessarily hear people talk about, well, it's all brand. Or like, I think from a planning point of view, you have to have a budget that is brand and you have to have a budget that is retail or performance. So they have to sit in line items, right? You have to think about it that way.
[00:36:02] But where it becomes really important is to remember, like the two crazy stats that I think just really illustrate this is the whole, the John Doors 95-5 rule, where you've only got 5% of your consumers are in market at any given time. But then you combine that with some work out of Oxford University, say, at Business School and they look at what percentage of consumers are predisposed to a particular brand before they enter category. And that's like 84%.
[00:36:27] So 5% of the 5%, 84% of the 5% have already got a brand in mind before they enter the category. So like, then you go, well, you know, if you're a business and you're looking at like rising CACs or lower LTVs and you're going, and you're looking at just the performance media, but you're not looking at, well, has our brand spent halved or what are we doing there? Like, you know, there's all these things interplay with each other. Absolutely. Absolutely.
[00:36:55] And also I fundamentally believe, I've been in digital long enough and marketing long enough to know, you know, that performance activity builds a brand. You can't argue that it doesn't play a role in building a perception around the brand, right? But where does brand building stop and start? You know, it's not hard and fast. Like I think you said, you have to, the allocation of spend has to sit somewhere. There has to be an allocation of brand and there has to be an allocation of performance.
[00:37:23] But I think in a world where commerce is so pervasive and so much of the research and discovery is happening online, the idea that a performance activity is only driving performance. I have to question every, you know, every conversation I have because I think it does play a role to building it, right? Yeah. And we get a bit hung up on like, can performance drive brand uplift or brand consideration?
[00:37:52] And I think to me that reduces the argument down in a way that isn't helpful. Like I think every touch point you have with brand is brand. Is brand. That's right. Exactly. In some way, shape or form. Exactly. And like, you know, like I think, you know, I've probably been guilty of this in the past where I'd say, well, would retail media drive uplifts in brand awareness? Well, probably not.
[00:38:17] But that's not to say that you going onto a customer and buying it from like the experience of buying a brand, whether it's direct or via an intermediary, is in itself an active brand in some way, shape or form, right? And I think we probably just want to be careful about reducing it down to, I mean, I'm sort of saying we shouldn't reduce it down to measurability in the context of this conversation. But I think it's dangerous to just think of it as, well, retail media can't drive brand awareness.
[00:38:46] Therefore, it's on a brand tour. Like, well, it's doing a brand job. It's just doing a different type of brand job. It is. Absolutely. It just depends how you, it's like, you know, I was on a panel recently talking about the rise of experience and how external data talking about how shoppers are craving experiences these days. And my point was that you can't reduce experiences down to activations because a lot of people hear experience and they think physical, physical pop up. And I'm like, that's right. And my point was, no, no, no. Experience is everything. Like you watching a YouTube ad is an experience.
[00:39:16] You buying the products. I mean, I used to work at Treasury Wine Estates and like you pick up a bottle of Penfolds and it feels weighty and the bottle and there's indents and there's the, there's the sound of like, all of that is, is experience. So I think, that's right. I agree. I absolutely agree. Anyway, went off a bit of a tangent. No, but good, no, but good conversation because I think ultimately, you know, this idea of we pigeonhole, you know, brand into brand, performance into performance and pit them against each other.
[00:39:43] I don't think it's been effective within many organizations over time, having such a kind of linear and, and rigid view. Okay. I'm going to change topics again. We're going to talk a little bit about first party data, identity technology. So we're obviously seeing some of the world's largest FMCG brands, consumer brands investing heavily in martech and ad tech capabilities to improve marketing and media effectiveness and really better connect the shopper journey.
[00:40:11] You know, and these brands are building first party data assets. They're investing in customer data platforms, identity resolution, leveraging data clean rooms, and the list goes on. But I know from previous conversations that I've had with you, that you're not necessarily convinced of the value or return of some of these investments. So I'd like to unpack your perspectives on this. Where do you see these capabilities genuinely adding value for brands? Yep.
[00:40:39] And where do you think maybe the industry is over-investing? Yeah. I would say, so yeah, you're right. Like I'm, my default position on most things is cynicism. So I think what I'm fighting against is just a broad view that we all accept without questioning that every brand should have one PD. That's probably, that's my starting position. Because I would argue, and this is looking at all categories, all brands, I would argue there should not be a world where you just say, we have to have one PD.
[00:41:08] And then you, and then the answer is, well, we have to, because we have to, right? Like that's where I start. So it's probably less, it's less about the cynicism of one PD and more about the dogma that one PD is everything and all brands have to have one PD. That's probably, that's probably the starting point to go from, go from. So with that being said, I think where we're seeing brands pivot and embrace one PD, I think is quite interesting. And there's some broad trends that I'm seeing, you know, not just in pet, but across a whole range of categories.
[00:41:37] I'd say there's a, there's a measurement piece around one PD where you have things like clean rooms come into play where, you know, again, there's, there's some of these use cases overlap where one, one PD. Paired with a clean room can also kind of be done by an MMM, you know, you're asking, you're asking an incremental revenue question at the ultimately the end of the day. Now, for something like that to work, you need vast amounts of one PD. I think that's one thing people misunderstand about clean rooms is like, you're not, you're not borrowing the customer's one PD.
[00:42:07] You're matching it with your own. And if you don't have a lot, then you can't get a good answer. So I think there are some definite use cases there, but it's a scale of one PD and, you know, one PD doesn't come for free. It's, it's, it's its own costs. And for some brands that will make a lot of sense and for some, it won't. So I think that's an interesting use case that I think not all brands can do just because of the sheer volume of one PD that a brand would need to acquire. Like not everyone's a Coke, obviously.
[00:42:35] So then I think, then, then I think with one PD, there's some interesting use cases around media. So for example, using one PD as a seed audience to create lookalike audiences. And again, this is a bit of a replacement of, I guess, the more traditional third party data signals. Again, Safari has really thrown a lot of plans into disarray. So I think there's a, there's some interesting use cases around and that doesn't, and that doesn't require huge amounts of one PD, you know, to, to build those, those models and lookalikes. So I think that's an interesting use case.
[00:43:05] I think the other one that I've seen as well, and some brands in, in, I'm trying to figure out who it was. I think it might've been Asahi, but I've seen some interesting brands use one PD more for market research and it becomes more like focus group and MPD testing. And I think that's a really fascinating use case because I think you could, you could quibble over whether testing MPD with a highly engaged, highly active one PD group provides a skew on the results or not.
[00:43:32] I think you can have that conversation on the sidelines, but I think if you, the, the, the counter argument is, well, if you can, if you've got a really solid group of one PD and they're enjoying what you're putting out there and they're giving you live feedback that that's pretty valuable. Right. And so I think there's a, I remember years ago, a guy called Chris Maxwell was doing some work when he was at CUB around this. And I think that's a really fascinating use case of using one, of using one PD. Um, what else are there?
[00:44:02] Essentially, I think what I'm hearing from you is there's a lot of talk about it. Brands are probably underestimating in some respects what it's going to take to build scale. And if you want your one PD strategy to deliver, deliver both in terms of, you know, your ability to be able to leverage it for data, clean rooms for measurement, to be able to activate it at scale for media. You need that scale. And, and for some brands, they may not be able to build that scale.
[00:44:30] So it's about really considering, you know, are we all in on this and does it make sense and what role is it going to play? Yep. And then all of the tech comes with it, right? Like in terms of what, what tech do we then need to enable it? But, but the question has got to come back to first and foremost, what role is it playing? How important is it for us as brands? And can we drive the scale that we need where it's going to deliver business return? Yeah, exactly.
[00:44:57] And I think it, particularly when you're, yeah, I've seen a lot of, I've seen a lot of businesses get very excited by one PD in certain categories. Like God, I saw one years ago. I forget the name of the brand, but they were in the, I think it was baby care formula or baby food or something like that. And they had this KPI that every single campaign had to capture one PD. And I remember hearing this guy talk and just thinking to myself, why? Like your one PD ages way quicker than other one PD.
[00:45:25] Like in pet care, if we acquire one PD as a puppy, you can argue we've kind of got them. Well, 15 years maybe. Yeah. But then even then they might go back and buy another dog, right? But in that one, you've really only got that and their counter argument, I suppose, would be, well, that's why we need to keep getting it because it keeps the freshness of that one PD decay so quickly. But then I'm like, what's the cost of doing that? And there's the media targeting cost of using one PD versus BAU.
[00:45:55] There's the, you know, you talked about this. There's the tech costs. Like you can't just, you know, like if you've got a CDP, you have to count that cost as part of it, right? And depending on your vendor, they can be quite expensive. Then the people to, you know, to use these tools. So I think, you know, you've got to, if you're going to go down this path, you've really got to think about what's the total cost of us doing this? And is it going to be enough to overcome our current? Is it going to provide more effectiveness?
[00:46:23] It's going to be less efficient, I would argue, but is it going to be more effective enough to overcome? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And I think, you know, the other consideration is what role does it play as part of a broader commerce strategy? Yeah. You are going D to C and for some FMCG, CPGs, that's highly relevant. Okay. We're nearly coming to a close, but I'm going to ask one more question of you. Sure. As retail media continues to mature, the number of platforms and investment opportunities is only growing.
[00:46:53] We're not seeing fewer retail media networks in market. We're seeing more. So looking ahead, what do you think FMCG and CPG brands need to do differently to maximize the effectiveness of their retail media investments? Maybe give me two or three kind of thoughts around that. Yeah. I would say start becoming obsessed by measurement. You know, really the final goal or the final end point should be we spent X and did we get more back than we spent?
[00:47:22] Like, I think incrementality should be the first and last word out of everyone who works in this industry. And if you're not getting a return on your investment, then that should be the initial kind of red flag, right? But I think, you know, particularly as a supplier, our goal is to not only get a return on our investment, but we want to help our customers grow as well. So I think there's also, you know, are we growing and is the customer growing with us? And that is a measurement question.
[00:47:50] And if you can't answer that, then you've got to go back to basics and build that measurement stack that helps you answer that quickly. Otherwise, every other decision you make is not going to be grounded on good frameworks. So I think, yeah, become obsessed by measurement is one thing I would say. And then I think from a measurement standpoint, you know, we talked a bit about incrementality tests. They can seem quite scary, but you can start small, you know. Just start with A tests.
[00:48:17] Like some brands will run, I mean, by the nature of incrementality tests, you generally can't do too many per year because you've got to have a baseline period. Within the intervention period, then you need to be spending a certain amount to hit stat seek thresholds and blah, blah, blah. So, you know, but I think you don't need to try and do five or six or seven per year. Just do one. Just start with one. Do a really simple test and do it well. And do it well. Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's the thing I said.
[00:48:41] I said to our agency partners, like, I would rather spend more and know the results than try and budget it in and be left wondering. There's nothing worse than doing a test and then it comes in and it's like inconclusive. I just, I'm like, I don't, like, I think, I don't care what the result is. Well, I try not to have a dog in the fight one way or another, but what I do care about is, is there a clear winner? And there's nothing worse.
[00:49:10] So do one, do it properly, fund it properly and be patient, I think is the other thing I'd say is we all want to instantly. But, you know, particularly with an incrementality test, depending on your category, make sure you're understanding your interval purchase period and applying that to how you, how you view the halo post-intervention period being measured. Because I guarantee if you don't, you're going to be, you're going to be getting a diminished view of what that, what that intervention would have provided. Yeah. Yeah. That makes sense. And ultimately execute it well, right? It's not about the test itself.
[00:49:39] It's often about the way that we execute. And sometimes the idea may not be bad. It might be the execution. So sometimes I find you might need to run your incrementality testing a series of times in order to ensure you've got the optimal execution to determine is your hypothesis right or, or, or not. Because sometimes the idea is right. It's the execution that's wrong. Yep. Exactly right. Yep. Well, Ben, I think that's all we've got time for today. Thank you so much for joining me.
[00:50:07] I've really, really enjoyed this conversation. I think we've covered a lot of ground. We have. We've covered a ton of ground. It's great. Yeah, it's been great. I've really, really enjoyed it. So thank you so much for your time. And thanks to everyone, as always, for tuning into Unpacking the Digital Shelf, the APAC edition with me, Teresa Spurdy.